I.Production, Consumption and Deficit of Sugar at Global Level in 2010-11 and 2011-12, a forecast.

Dr. Ashok S. Patill,India Bio and Agro Pacific Pvt. Ltd., Pune, MS, India

INDIA –In India, the sugar manufactured during 2009-10 was 17.30 mlntrv and the percentage to total global sugar production was 11.21 % (Table 1). During 2010-11, it is expected an increase of cane production by 25 % in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Punjab, etc. states. In November, 2010 the estimation of sugar production was 27.1 mlntrv, however due to unseasonal rains in December, 2010 and January, 2011 and late starting of harvesting of cane by 46 days, the sugar production, is re-estimated to 24.0 mlntrv in 2010-11. The sugar recovery drop in many states, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, etc. due to early flowering in cane, late start of  winter season and severe frost in North-Western Indian States, it will be less by 2.1 mlntrv than earlier estimation.

USA-In USA, the production of sugar was estimated to 6.85 in 2009-10 and 6.60 mlntrv in 2010-11 with a forecast of 6.40 mlntrv in 2011-12. The production of sugar, when compared with a global level will be 4.42 % and 4.13 % during 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively. The slightly low production by 0.20 mlntrv may be due to low productivity. Total Sugar production in USA, Mexico and Canada in 2010-11 and 2011-12 may be to the tune of 11.66 and 11.36 mlntrv, respectively. The supply of ethanol from Brazil to North American Countries may be constant and will not seriously affect the sugar production in USA

EUROPEAN UNION-27-Sugar production in 2009-10, in EU-27 was 16.63 mlntrv and which was 10.79 % to total global sugar production. In 2009-10, estimation of sugar production for EU-27 was 16.2 to 16.6 mlntrv for the year 2010-11, however, due to curtail of sugar export, removal of subsidies on beet sugar, closing of few sugar units heavy rainfall/ snowfall in December, 2010 etc., it is expected the decrease of sugar production by 1.50 mlntrv and more in 2010-11 and finally total production may be 15.00 mlntrv. The heavy rain and snow fall has affected the new sowings of sugar beet and in 2011-12; the sugar production forecast is 14.50 mlntrv with contribution of 9.36 % at global level (Table 1).

CHINA-Sugar production in China was 13.62 mlntrv and it was 8.83 % to total global sugar production (Table 1) in 2009-10.International Sugar Organization has forecasts the sugar production of 13.2 mlntrv in 2010-11 with a consumption of 16.1 mlntrv in 2010 and later on due to heavy rains, it is expected to produce 12 mlntrv. Sugar Cane and Beet crop is suffered due to heavy rains and it is expected to reduce the sugar production of 1.20 mlntrv in 2010-11. This will further affect the sugar production in 2011-12 and is forecast to 11.00 mlntrv. Deficit of sugar in China may be 5.00 mlntrv due to less productivity and more consumption in 2011-12.

RUSSIA-In 2009-10, the sugar production in Russia and FSU was estimated to 3.60 mlntrv (2.33 %), however, it was estimated from 4.1 to 3.3 mlntrv, for the year 2010-11. The beet crop is damaged due to heat wave in Central and Volga Region, earlier. The heavy rains and snowfall is received in first week of January, 2011 and it is expected that total sugar production may be 2.70 and 3.00 mlntrv in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively. Therefore, there will be less production of sugar by 0.90 and 0.60 mlntrv in 2010-11 and 2011-12 as compared to 2009-10. The per cent sugar production when compared with global level may be to 1.82 and 1.94 %, respectively during 2010-11 and 2011-12.

INDONESIA-Prolonged heavy rains mainly in Island of Java (which supplies 60 % of countries output) can be a cause for low sugar output by 2.25 mlntrv in 2010-11 as against 2.30 mlntrv in 2009-10. The area under cane is increasing in Indonesia as Indonesian Government has planned to bring the additional 100, 000 ha. cane area under three new sugar units and it is forecast that in 2011-12, the sugar output may increase to 2.50 mlntrv and in a near future, more than three mlntrv.

THAILAND-Estimation of sugar production during 2009-10 was 7.94 mlntrv, however, severe drought and floods results in lower down the production. The severe infestation of Sugar Cane Woolly Aphids, a major sucking pest is also responsible for drop in sugar cane and sugar yield in Khon Kaen area. Considering the climatical conditions and pest spread, it is expected the 6.00 and 5.80 mlntrv production of sugar in 2010-11 and 2011-12.

BANGLADESH-Sugar mills in Bangladesh can produce only 1, 25, 000 tonnes of sugar, however, in 2009-10, the production was 0.08 mlntrv and consumption is about 1.4 mlntrv. Due to unseasonal rains, the sugar production in 2010-11 may reduce to 0.06 mlntrv and will be 0.07 mlntrv in 2011-12. The Bangladesh may require about 1.35 mlntrv import of sugar to meet the countries demand in 2010-11 and 2011-12.

PAKISTAN-Total production of sugar in 2009-10 was about 3.50 mlntrv with a shortage of about 1.2 to 1.5 mlntrv. It is expected that due to excess rains, the total sugar production in 2010-11 may be to 2.30 mlntrv i.e. shortage of 2.0 to 2.40 mlntrv. The production may increase to 2.80 mlntrv in 2011-12. It is expected that 1.5 mlntrv of sugar will be an additional need of Pakistan each year.

VIETNAM-Sugar production in Vietnam during 2009-10 was expected to 1.05 mlntrv. Due to dry weather conditions the growth of sugar cane was slow and delay in crushing season, the sugar production during 2010-11 is forecast to 0.90 mlntrv. During next two years, the Vietnam may short of 0.20 to 0.25 million tonnes of sugar.

KENYA-During 2009-10, sugar production in Kenya was expected to 0.59 mlntrv and it is estimated to 0.55 and 0.65 mlntrv in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The mills having a total crushing capacity of 18250 TCD are newly licensed in Kenya to bridge the gap of sugar and are an excellent decision.

SOUTH-AFRICA-South African Sugar Association (SASA) is expected to 2.06 mlntrv of sugar output in 2010-11 in South Africa. It is forecast to produce 2.15 mlntrv in 2011-12.

BRAZIL-Sugar Cane production in Brazil is hampered due to dry weather and limited rains in Centre-South Brazil area as per the DN agencies report. The Centre for Sugar Cane Technology, Piracicaba has also estimated the low productivity by 9.1 % in 2010-11. “Bisada” cane that was not processed in the last harvest year has already been harvested and may also give the drop in cane productivity.

The cane crushing is advanced in 2010-11 as compared to last year and less than 12 months old age cane is in harvest, which may results in a low productivity of cane and sugar. Though the estimation of sugar production was 41.70 mlntrv, the loss in production may be more as compared to last year and finally the sugar production estimation for 2010-11 is 35.45 mlntrv, and which is less by 6.25 mlntrv than earlier estimates. This may happened mainly due to low productivity, harvesting of Bisada cane and more demand contracts for ethanol productivity. In 2009-10, the sugar production was 33.45 mlntrv and Brazil’s share to total global sugar production was 21.67 % (Table 1).

In 2011-12, the total sugar production forecast is to 39.43 mlntrv, i.e. more by 3.98 mlntrv than 2010-11, which may be due to increase of cane area.

AUSTRALIA-Development Prospect Group, The World Bank, in December 2009, expected the sugar production of 4.90 mlntrv, however, in one of the recent estimates it is 4.63 to 4.72 during 2009-10 and as per estimation, it is 4.52 mlntrv for the year 2009-10 and contributes to 2.93 % to total global sugar production (Table 1) and considering recent La-Nina cause, it will reduce to 2.01 % in 2010-11 and 1.74 % in 2011-12.

The Government’s Chief Commodities Forecasters, The Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource Economics (ABARE) had estimated in June, 2010 that the harvest could yield 44.2 to 4.5 mlntrv for the year 2010-11. The fear expected earlier by Jim Crane, Senior Executive, the Officer, Australian Sugar Milling Council about La Nina and its outcome in cane production. The heavy rains and floods received in the last week of December, 2010 and first week of January, 2011 in Northern Queensland, where 90 % sugar cane of the country is grown. Considering the short growing period of cane due to earlier longer season, summer cyclones and recent La Nina may cause decrease in the cane yield and sugar productivity. The total sugar production expected is 3.00 mlntrv, which may less by 1.52 mlntrv, in 2010-11. This ultimately affects the sugar production in 2011-12 and is forecast to 2.70 mlntrv, less by 1.82 mlntrv than 2009-10.

II.Production, Consumption and Deficit of Sugar as per Geographical area of the World.

In Western and Central Europe, it is expected that sugar production may be 17.74 and 17.00 mlntrv during 2010-11 and 2011-12 season, respectively with a consumption of 18.97 and 19.48 mlntrv, respectively. In 2011-12, the deficit of 2.48 mlntrv sugar is forecast. It is estimated that sugar production when compared with global level may be 11.90 and 10.98 % during 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively as against 13.02 % in 2009-10.

Consumption of sugar is expected to 11.14 and 11.34 mlntrv during 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively with a production of 6.47 and 7.08 mlntrv, respectively. The sugar about 4.67 and 4.26 mlntrv will be additionally needed in Eastern Europe and FSU region for consumption.  There is a limited scope to increase the area under sugar beet as this crop is more susceptible to changing global climate than sugar cane.

During 2010-11, the sugar production forecast in North, Central and South America may be 11.66, 5.61 and 42.77 mlntrv, respectively with a consumption of about 16.76, 3.56 and 20.52 mlntrv, respectively. In 2010-11, there will be a surplus sugar production by 2.05 and 22.25 mlntrv, in Central and South America, respectively. In North America, the sugar deficit will be 5.10 and 5.62 mlntrv during 2010-11 and 2011-12. There is a scope to increase the production of sugar, green fuel (ethanol), co-generation etc. in South America.

The deficit of sugar during 2010-11 and 2011-12 is estimated to 12.58 and 13.05 mlntrv, respectively.

     It is forecast to produce sugar about 5.91 and 6.11 mlntrv, respectively in 2010-11 and 2011-12 and consumption may be 8.83 and 9.21 mlntrv, respectively.  Equatorial and Southern Africa seems to be noticed suitable for increase of sugar production to mitigate their demand, in a near future. There is a scope to boost the sugar cane production in African countries, viz. Kenya, Etheopia, Uganda, Malawi, Cameroon, Congo, and Swaziland. There is also a prime need to generate the employment in rural area in Africa.

    Sugar Cane, Sugar Machinery, Ethanol, Co-generation etc. technologies suitable to African conditions is available in India. Indian Government, Indian companies, various organizations as per their policies can help to strengthen the existing sugar units and to establish the new su

Shortage of 7.43 and 10.31 mlntrv of sugar forecast for the year 2010-11 and 2011-12 for Far East and Oceania area. There is a limited scope to increase area under sugar cane in Australia. The sugar production can be increase in Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, China, etc. The sugar production in China and Thailand may be 11.00 and 5.80 mlntrv, respectively during 2011-12 and 13.62 and 7.94 mlntrv in 2009-10, respectively.

In Indian Subcontinent, the production of sugar in 2010-11 and 2011-12 is estimated to 26.71 and 30.23 mlntrv, respectively. However, due to more consumption, less production in Pakistan, Srilanka and Bangladesh, the deficit forecast is 6.32 and 3.15 mlntrv, respectively during 2010-11 and 2011-12. There will be no shortage of sugar in 2010-11 and 2011-12 in India. It is expected that the sugar production in India may increase to 24.00 and 27.00 mlntrv during 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively. Considering the overall situation and global review, it is forecast that India can export the 2.5 to 4.0 mlntrv of sugar every year up to 2020 after fulfilling the countries requirement.

    Hon. President of India in her address to Parliament on 4th June, 2009 mentioned that next ten years would be dedicated as a “Decade of Innovation”. Hon. Prime Minister of India in the 97th Session of Indian Science Congress held on 3rd January, 2010 at Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala also mentioned in his speech that the Government has declared 2010-2020 as the “Decade of Innovations”. The main aim of this declaration is to develop an innovation eco-system in the country to stimulate innovations and to produce solutions for the societal needs in terms of healthcare, energy, urban infrastructure, water and transportation. Indian sugar industry is one of the biggest industries in the world after Brazil, at present, and can successfully participate in this mission.

    The sugar production and cane area will definitely increase in India in future as the climatic conditions may be suitable to cultivate sugar cane even under the changing environmental factors. Considering generating more employment in rural area with an immediate approach and additional moto to export 10 to 15 mlntrv sugar every year up to 2038. During the year, Indian Science Congress Association will be celebrating “Quasquicentennial Anniversary” and it is highly essential to start an “Innovative work on Mission” in sugar sector to support this programme.

      War footed efforts are needed to increase the area under the crops like groundnut, mustard, safflower, pulses (green gram, black gram, chick pea, etc.), wheat, vegetables (onion, cabbage, cauliflower, potato, leafy vegetables, etc.), green manuring crops, etc. as an intercrops or rotational crops in a sugar cane eco-system at Indian level on campaign and priority basis for more profitable cane cultivation and to get sugar at reasonable rates for consumption. It is also necessary to undertake the more efforts at sugar factory level for increase of sugar production.

         It is forecast that, the demand of sugar and ethanol will increase year after year and therefore, India can march forward towards the total sugar production of 50 mlntrv in future i.e. up to 2020, with an additional object to export 25 to 40 % of total sugar produced in the country, every year.  Some sugar units in India are non-functional due to many factors; however, their infrastructure can be used with some modifications on priority. A massive programme needs to be finalised at National and State level for their rehabilitation and or modernization, as the case may be, for successful running of these factories.

     There is a need to form a separate “Innovative Mission” at National and State level for speedy and result oriented work for increase of cane, sugar, alcohol, ethanol, chemical’s productivity with saving bagasse and steam, etc. and priority for 10 to 15 mlntrv of sugar for export.

III. Global Production, Consumption and Deficit of Sugar in 2010-11 and2011-12

At global level, the production of sugar (sugar cane and sugar beet) during 2010-11 and 2011-12 (Table 2) is estimated to 149.15 and 154.98 mlntrv, respectively with a consumption of 165.10 and 169.66 mlntrv, respectively. The data given in Table 1 and 2 clearly indicated the deficit of sugar is about 15.95 and 14.68 mlntrv in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively.

Table I. Production of Sugar at Global Level (2009-10 to 2011-12)

mlntrv– million tonnes raw value,  @% to total global production,  *  Present,  ** Estimate, *** Forecast

 

Sr.No

 

Geographical area of the World

Country

Sugar Production (million tonnes, raw value)

Year

2009-10*

2010-11**

2011-12 ***

t

% (@)

t

%

t

%

I.

America-

South America

 

Brazil

33.45

21.67

35.45

23.78

39.43

25.44

Colombia

2.59

1.68

2.40

1.60

2.20

1.41

Argentina

2.25

1.46

2.15

1.44

2.15

1.39

Peru

1.07

0.69

1.02

0.68

1.02

0.66

Other

2.13

1.38

1.75

1.17

1.83

1.19

Sub Total

41.49

26.88

42.77

28.67

46.63

30.09

II.

Asia-

Indian Subcontinent

India

17.30

11.21

24.00

16.09

27.00

17.42

Pakistan

3.50

2.27

2.30

1.55

2.80

1.80

Other

0.49

0.32

0.41

0.27

0.43

0.28

Sub Total

21.29

13.80

26.71

17.91

30.23

19.50

III.

Asia-

Middle East

Iran

0.77

0.50

0.70

0.47

0.70

0.45

Other

0.13

0.08

0.11

0.07

0.11

0.07

Sub Total

0.90

0.58

0.81

0.54

0.81

0.52

IV.

Asia-

Far East

 

China

13.62

8.83

12.00

8.04

11.00

7.09

Thailand

7.94

5.14

6.00

4.02

5.80

3.74

Indonesia

2.30

1.49

2.25

1.51

2.50

1.61

Philippines

2.29

1.48

2.00

1.34

2.00

1.29

Vietnam

1.05

0.68

0.90

0.60

0.85

0.55

Japan

0.90

0.58

0.80

0.55

0.75

0.49

Other

0.71

0.47

0.75

0.50

0.85

0.55

Sub Total

28.81

18.67

24.70

16.56

23.75

15.32

V.

America-Central  America

 

Guatemala

2.38

1.54

2.30

1.55

2.25

1.45

Cuba

1.37

0.89

1.20

0.80

1.25

0.80

Other

2.68

1.74

2.11

1.41

2.17

1.40

Sub Total

6.43

4.17

5.61

3.76

5.67

3.65

VI.

Australia-Oceania

 

Australia

4.52

2.93

3.00

2.01

2.70

1.74

Other

0.20

0.13

0.12

0.08

0.15

0.09

Sub Total

4.72

3.06

3.12

2.09

2.85

1.83

VII

Africa-Equatorial and Southern Africa

South Africa

2.33

1.51

2.10

1.40

2.15

1.39

Swaziland

0.64

0.41

0.56

0.38

0.54

0.35

Kenya

0.59

0.38

0.55

0.37

0.65

0.42

Mauritius

0.49

0.32

0.40

0.27

0.45

0.29

Ethiopia

0.32

0.21

0.27

0.18

0.27

0.18

Other

2.31

1.50

2.03

1.36

2.05

1.32

Sub Total

6.68

4.33

5.91

3.96

6.11

3.95

VIII.

Africa-Northern Africa

Egypt

1.75

1.13

1.70

1.14

1.60

1.03

Sudan

0.82

0.53

0.75

0.50

0.70

0.45

Morocco

0.41

0.26

0.37

0.25

0.38

0.25

Other

0.80

0.53

0.83

0.56

0.81

0.52

Sub Total

3.78

2.45

3.65

2.45

3.49

2.25

IX.

Europe-Western and Central Europe

EU-27

16.63

10.79

15.00

10.07

14.50

9.36

Serbia

0.40

0.26

0.30

0.20

0.40

0.27

Switzerland

0.30

0.19

0.20

0.13

0.30

0.19

Croatia

0.23

0.14

0.17

0.11

0.23

0.15

Other

2.54

1.64

2.07

1.39

1.57

1.01

Sub Total

20.10

13.02

17.74

11.90

17.00

10.98

X.

Europe-Eastern Europe and FSU

 

Russia and FSU

3.60

2.33

2.70

1.82

3.00

1.94

Turkey

2.61

1.70

2.30

1.54

2.40

1.55

Macedonia

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.02

Other

1.78

1.15

1.44

0.96

1.65

1.07

Sub Total

8.02

5.20

6.47

4.34

7.08

4.58

XI.

America-North America

 

USA

6.85

4.44

6.60

4.42

6.40

4.13

Mexico

5.18

3.36

5.00

3.36

4.90

3.36

Other

0.07

0.04

0.06

0.04

0.06

0.03

Sub Total

12.10

7.84

11.66

7.82

11.36

7.32

Total Global Production

154.32

100.00

149.15

100.00

154.98

100.00

 

Table 2. Production, Consumption and Deficitof Sugar at World Level

 

Geographical

Area

Year/Sugar (mlntrv)

2009-10 *

2010-11**

2011-12***

 

Pro

Con

D/S

Pro

Con

D/S

Pro

Con

D/S

Western and Central Europe

20.10

18.73

+1.37

17.74

18.97

-1.23

17.00

19.48

-2.48

Eastern Europe and FSU

8.02

11.09

-3.07

6.47

11.14

-4.67

7.08

11.34

-4.26

North America

12.10

16.52

-4.42

11.66

16.76

-5.10

11.36

16.98

-5.62

Central America

6.43

3.43

+3.00

5.61

3.56

+2.05

5.67

3.87

+1.80

South America

41.49

19.97

+21.52

42.77

20.52

+22.25

46.63

21.14

+25.49

Middle East and  North Africa

4.68

16.65

-11.97

4.46

17.04

-12.58

4.30

17.35

-13.05

Far East and Oceania

33.53

34.66

-1.13

27.82

35.25

-7.43

26.60

36.91

-10.31

Equatorial and Southern Africa

6.68

8.53

-1.85

5.91

8.83

-2.92

6.11

9.21

-3.10

Indian Sub

Continent

21.29

31.75

-10.46

26.71

33.03

-6.32

30.23

33.38

-3.15

Global Total

154.32

161.33

-7.01

149.15

165.10

-15.95

154.98

169.66

-14.68

 

 Place: Pune, INDIA.

 Date: 21st December, 2010